How the 2024 Presidential Election Could Impact Supply Chains

Supply chain leaders are acutely aware that changes in policy and legislation may significantly impact key areas of the supply chain, including manufacturing and infrastructure, sustainability, technology and innovation, talent and job creation, and security.  

Supply chains have more recently become a larger part of political conversation following major events and disruptions such as the pandemic, Panama Canal drought, labor challenges, and geopolitical tensions abroad. These issues have revealed just how interconnected supply chains are, as well as how deeply reliant Americans are on timely and reliable supply chains for essential goods like food, household supplies, and medicine.    

In response to these challenges, and in recognizing key roles that supply chains play in maintaining a strong economy, the Biden Administration has taken several proactive measures to protect and strengthen U.S. supply networks.

For example, Biden established the first White House Council on Supply Chain Resilience to boost national security and the ability to recover from emergencies, as well as the Supply Chain Task Force, which worked with local governments, states, tribes, and businesses to solve supply chain related issues.

The Biden Administration also introduced several other supply-chain related measures, including the Freight Logistics Optimization Works (FLOW) to help ensure a smoother flow of goods, and enhanced security standards to enhance the security of America’s ports.

ASCM has become a strategic partner with the U.S. Department of Commerce along with other key stakeholders across industry and academia. These partnerships will help promote the global competitiveness of U.S. industry, help businesses become more resilient, and make the Department’s supply chain work more innovative and impactful.

U.S. and Global Supply Chains in the Balance

With the U.S. Presidential Election on the horizon, both candidates present policies that would impact U.S. and global supply chains. If the United States were to elect Kamala Harris, it is likely that many of the Biden Administration policies enacted would be upheld and expanded. Her presidency would likely prioritize nearshoring and domestic manufacturing while supporting sustainability, ethics, and fueling the creation of jobs.

If Donald Trump were elected this fall, we could expect to see companies rush to move cargo ahead of new tariffs, which Trump has pledged to impose. Specifically, the Trump Administration would enact a 10% tariff on imported goods and a 60% tax on all goods from China, which could significantly alter future trade in the United States.   

Proactive Risk Management

Whether or not we see a Harris-Walz or Trump-Vance Administration this fall, one fact remains the same: Supply chain organizations must be prepared for a shift and proactively practice risk management. Elections, regardless of the outcome, often result in temporary policy uncertainty, shifting trade relations, and changes in regulations that directly impact supply chain operations.

Effective risk management entails identifying internal and external risks, communicating with stakeholders and outlining mitigation strategies. Supply chain leaders can help build resilience by diversifying suppliers and building up inventory to enhance flexibility in logistics networks. Leaders should also monitor for potential regulatory changes and develop contingency plans for various election outcomes based on the plans articulated by both candidates.    

The ability to anticipate and adapt to market shifts is critical for ensuring business continuity—not just in the context of the U.S. election—but also to instill resiliency against external threats facing supply chains including cyberattacks, geopolitical tensions, delays, shortages, and more.